The Impending Collapse of the NCAA Amidst Conference Realignment and Media Deals

The Dawn of Television Dollars in College Sports

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. – The landscape of college sports is undergoing a radical transformation, with recent conference shifts revealing an unsettling trend: the once-celebrated student-athlete experience now takes a back seat to television and media revenue. Those recent conference shifts have made one thing abundantly clear: college sports are driven now by television dollars. Amid all this chaos and restructuring, what happens to the student-athletes, the supposed reason these programs and conferences exist in the first place?

It is not breaking news; in fact, the idea of the student-athlete experience taking a serious backseat to media revenue has been repeated again and again in this summer of seismic conference moves. But it all started years ago.

The Financial Engine Driving College Sports Transformation

The past decade has been rife with examples that demonstrate how financial considerations are prioritizing media profits over the educational mission of sports. Schools have even switched conferences just to get a piece of larger television contracts, often disrupting long-standing rivalries and community traditions. The move by the University of Maryland from the ACC to the Big Ten in 2014 was motivated by an estimated $100 million increase in revenue over six years, mostly from the Big Ten’s more lucrative television contract.

The Disintegration of the ‘Power 5’ into a ‘Superpower 4’

We’ve now shifted from the ‘Power 5’ to a ‘Superpower 4.’ The Pac-12, founded in 1959, is on its last legs, if not entirely extinct. With the escalating focus on television rights, Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) policies, and transfer portals, the values that underpinned college sports—like amateurism, tradition, and rivalries—are vanishing.

In 2008, ESPN and the SEC announced a groundbreaking 15-year deal worth, as Reuters described it at the time, “an eye-popping $2.25 billion”. That was followed by University of Texas launching its exclusive Longhorn Network in 2011 in conjunction with ESPN. Around that same time in 2011 the Pac-12 signed a 12-year deal with ESPN and Fox – and the ensuing failure to renegotiate (and the Pac-12’s failure to effectively negotiate with anyone to its memberships’ liking) is why we are where we are today.

Bill Dwyre of the Los Angeles Times posed similar questions yesterday: “Think first about the NCAA. What is it? Why does it even exist?…NCAA basketball tournament money. No other reason.”

And so Mr. Dwyre’s questions raise another important one: how long will it be until the schools in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC realize they can organize their own independent postseason events and ditch the NCAA altogether?

The Future of College Sports Without the NCAA

As schools in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC increasingly recognize their capability to organize their own independent postseason events, the very raison d’être of the NCAA stands on shaky ground. The NCAA’s seeming urgency to tweak rules around transfer portals, recruiting calendars, and permissible evaluation days is failing to stave off its impending irrelevance. Their absence of guidance on pivotal issues like conference realignment and NIL rights has been conspicuous, raising questions about their future role, if any.

As these power conferences consider creating their own rules and tournaments, we may soon bear witness to the dissolution of the NCAA itself, a body that has governed college sports since its inception in 1906 but now seems increasingly redundant and out of touch.

The NCAA has been keen on changing its rules for change’s sake – almost as if altering transfer portal windows, recruiting calendars and the number of permissible evaluation days is enough to sustain the NCAA’s purpose. But its leadership on issues like conference realignment and NIL rights has been nonexistent.

And if the remaining power conferences care to codify its own rules and its own tournaments, the NCAA too may soon be nonexistent.

A Watershed Moment for Governance in College Sports

This era of seismic shifts could serve as a watershed moment for governance in college sports. If the remaining ‘Superpower 4’ conferences decide to cut ties with the NCAA, they could set a precedent that may incite a domino effect for smaller conferences to follow. For example, the American Athletic Conference (AAC) and the Sun Belt Conference, while not part of the power conferences, have been eyeing their own autonomy and self-governance, fueled by similar economic considerations. What if they decide that their interests are better served outside the jurisdiction of the NCAA?

In summary, the ongoing transformations in the college sports landscape are far-reaching. They affect not just the structure of conferences and the inflow of television dollars, but also the core philosophy of what college sports should represent. The NCAA, which has been the sentinel of this philosophy for more than a century, is now under scrutiny. Its relevance in question. The growing discord between the economic engine and the academic mission of college sports can no longer be ignored. It remains to be seen how or if the NCAA can adapt to these tectonic shifts.