The New Landscape: College Football Playoffs Expanding to 12 Teams
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. – Amidst all the conference realignment and television media rights discussions, it has been easy to forget that 2023 is the last year of the four team college football playoff.
Beginning in 2024, the four team playoff bracket will grow to 12. Six slots will go to the conference champions from the top six conferences in the country. With all the alignment that has gone on – and assuming the Pac-12 ceases to exist in 2024 – this ensures that two “Group of 5” champions will have automatic bids into the College Football Playoff. When the plans for the 12 team bracket were drafted, there were still five major conferences. The format all but guaranteed the champions from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Pac-12 would take the top five spots. Now there is an opportunity for that second Group of 5 conference.
The remaining six teams will be the next six highest ranked teams in the country.
So with all the conference realignment that has gone on this summer, which three programs could potentially be the big winners in the new CFP 12-team bracket?
Why Fresno State and Boise State Are the Mountain West’s CFP Hopefuls
Fresno State– In 2022, the Mountain West ranked as the seventh strongest conference in the country. In other words, MW-champion Fresno State would not have qualified for the 12-team CFP. With four of the top five teams from the American bolting for other conferences (UCF, Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12 and SMU to the ACC), one can safely assume that the AAC will surrender its place as the country’s sixth best conference. Therefore, the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Mountain West should grab the top five spots with the AAC and Sun Belt jockeying for the last spot. Of course, in the current four team CFP, a team like Fresno State that finished the year ranked 24th would have no chance to get a spot; but in the expanded 12-team field, it’s likely the Mountain West will have a spot. Having started the year with a 39-35 win over the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, IN, the Bulldogs have already inserted themselves as an official CFP hopeful.
Boise State– The Broncos lost to Fresno State in the 2022 Mountain West championship game. But Boise State remains one of the few powerhouse football programs that can still promise its recruits that it will play regional conference games and not have to fly 3,000 miles every couple of weeks. Boise State has had arguably the longest sustained success of any Mountain West football team. If the Mountain West can secure a spot in the CFP, Boise State should be able to compete for a slot year after year. However, with a season opening loss to top 10 Washington on September 2nd, the Broncos will need a strong Mountain West campaign to position themselves in the final twelve.
Tulane: The AAC’s Dark Horse in the Race to the Expanded CFP
Tulane- In 2022, Tulane finished 12-2 and ranked ninth in the country. Three of its biggest conference foes have already left – UCF, Cincinnati, Houston – with SMU heading out in 2024. If the AAC can simply be more competitive and rank higher than the Sun Belt Conference, Tulane will be well situated for a run to the 12-team College Football Playoff. Tulane is currently ranked #24. They are the only ranked AAC team at the moment, so the rest of the conference will have to do its part in 2024 to win non-conference games to ensure AAC’s spot in the playoff. Tulane is holding up their part of the bargain, with a dominant win over South Alabama in the season opener. The Green Wave are moving in the right direction, but a win over #20 Ole Miss this weekend will surely have them in pole position to lock up an ACC playoff spot.
Competitive Balance and Parity in the New CFP Format
The shift to a 12-team CFP is bound to bring a breath of fresh air to college football. One of the most exciting prospects is the increased competitive balance. Teams that have been consistently good but not elite now have a chance to prove their worth on a much bigger stage. This not only benefits the teams but also the fans who will get to enjoy more varied and unpredictable matchups. Thus, breaking the monotony of seeing the same teams reach the CFP year after year.
The winds of change are blowing through the world of college football. As we look toward 2024, the landscape promises to be radically different but exciting. The teams that adapt the quickest to these changes are the ones that will find themselves in prime positions in the expanded College Football Playoffs. Whether it’s Fresno State, Boise State, Tulane, or a potential dark horse, the new format brings new opportunities, and with it, the promise of thrilling football action.